Recession dating nber
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According to current data forthe present recession dating nber falls into the general pattern, with three consecutive quarters of decline. In the past, the NBER has made some small changes to cycle dates, most recently in Retrieved October 21, Following the end of World War II and the large adjustment as the economy adjusted from wartime to peacetime inthe collection of many economic indicators, such as unemployment and GDP, became standardized.
The committee decided that following NBER procedures, a renewed decline in activity would be identified as a new recession rather than a continuation of the downturn. Another factor is the rise in the price index for consumption, used to state personal income in real terms, in relation to the price index used to state GDP in real terms. Macroeconomic Advisers aggregates them, and then uses a statistical procedure to adjust the monthly estimates for each quarter to make them consistent with the Commerce Department's official quarterly figure.
The fact that quarterly real GDP grew very strongly in the fourth quarter of also helped to limit the possible months that could be identified as the trough. An Excel spreadsheet containing the data and figures for a number of indicators of economic activity considered by the committee is available at that page as well. International Finance and Macroeconomics.
However, because it grew only a small amount between October and Novemberthe NBER methodology indicates that it reached its trough in November. Yes, the NBER has done this before.
For recession dating nber, on July 8,the committee announced that a trough had occurred in November before real GNP had exceeded its third quarter peak. The monthly GDP numbers are fairly noisy and are subject to considerable revision.
A bulge in jobless claims usually forecasts declining employment and rising unemployment, but we do not use the initial claims numbers in determining our chronology, partly because of noise in that data series.
The reasons for this are discussed in the frequently asked question on this topic below. Beginning inan index of business activity by the Cleveland Trust Company provides data for comparison between recessions.
Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition? This was one of the longest and deepest depressions of the 19th century. Retrieved February 29, He is also the Mitsui Professor of Economics at M.